Market Analysis Review

China’s GDP weaker for 2nd quarter, Empire State manufacturing index lower, Gold and U.S. indices moved to the upside, Crude oil is heading lower, Bitcoin gained further

| 16 July, 2024 at 12:53 GMT

Previous Trading Day’s Events (15.07.2024)

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Winners vs Losers

Metals climbed to the top. Gold reached 0.98% gains this week and Silver 0.63%. Silver remains the top gainer for the month with 5.89% gains.

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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (15.07.2024)

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

0. Weekend:

An attempt to assassinate former President Donald Trump is driving markets this Monday.

The FBI identified Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, as the suspect and said the shooting was being investigated as an attempted assassination.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-shooting-raises-questions-about-security-lapses-2024-07-14/

1. Midnight – Night Session (Asian)

No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.

2. Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)

The report at 5:00 for China’s GDP showed weaker-than-expected second-quarter data that points to slowing economic momentum and the need for more stimulus. China’s economy expanded 4.7%, missing analysts’ expectations.

Industrial production, however, beat expectations by 5.3% in June from a year ago, higher than Reuters’ estimate of 5% growth.

The Empire State Manufacturing index figure was reported at 15:30, a -6.6 figure, indicating that business activity continued to decline modestly in New York State, according to firms responding to the July 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. No major impact was recorded in the market.

General Verdict:

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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR

EURUSD (15.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary

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Price Movement

The pair started to move significantly upwards after the start of the European session. The EUR was gaining ground against the USD since the USD depreciated greatly during that session. However, the deviations from the 30-period MA were not so great indicating low volatility. The path remained sideways and eventually, the pair closed nearly flat. 1.08840 acts as an important support at the moment.

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CRYPTO  MARKETS MONITOR

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary 1H

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Price Movement

Since the start of an uptrend, on the 12th of July, the price has continued steadily upwards. At the beginning of the week, on Monday 15th, the price jumped to nearly 63K USD. That is a remarkable recovery for Bitcoin’s price. On the 16th the price reached a strong resistance at 65K USD before retracing to the 30-period MA. It actually moved downwards and crossed the MA on its way down signalling the potential stop of the uptrend. The RSI is bearish. The price broke the 63K USD support and is heading towards the next probable target level, at 62K USD.

Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:

The market has experienced a significant correction. Since June this year, the market has been suffering with most Crypto marking huge losses as it was not improving in July as well. Now mid-July we see a huge comeback with a steady improvement. Will it be sustained?

https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies

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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR

S&P500 (SPX500) 4-Day Chart Summary

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Price Movement

The CPI inflation y/y figure was reported on the 11th  and the index dropped as per our forecast in the previous analysis. Expectations about lowered borrowing costs starting in September are boosting investment in stocks. After the shock on the 11th, the market experienced another shock on the 12th after the release of the PPI data, Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. A jump occurred with the price finding resistance around 5,660 USD before retracing to the intraday mean. Huge volatility for the index last week as depicted on the chart. On the 15th the index closed higher after experiencing volatility and managed to form an upward wedge formation. The breakout to the downside could cause a sharp drop to a possible target level of nearly 5,600 USD.

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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR

USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary

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Price Movement

During the U.S. inflation news on the 11th Crude oil prices saw some retreat but eventually reversed to the upside. After several tests of the resistance 82.10 USD/b, it finally broke that resistance. After finding strong resistance at near 82.5 USD/b the price reversed to the downside on the 12th breaking the triangle formation. The 80.2 USD/b support was reached as per our forecast in our previous analysis. Now we see a head and shoulders pattern as the price is testing that support that coincides with the neckline. Its breakout could cause a sharp drop with a target level of 79 USD/b.

XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary

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Price Movement

On the 12th the price continued with retracement after the previous day’s peak. When it touched the MA it reversed to the upside to continue with a sideways path. A triangle formation was apparent as we mentioned in our previous analysis and a breakout to the upside led to the price reaching the resistance near 2,440 USD/oz. Currently, there is potential for a breakout of that resistance upwards.

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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (16.07.2024)

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

1. Midnight – Night Session (Asian)

No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.

2. Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)

At 15:30 the CPI inflation data for Canada will be released. It is expected that the figures will be reported lower. This could be the case as the labour data show great weakness. The unemployment rate reached higher and higher and of course this should have an impact on prices. CAD pairs could see an intraday shock upon release. A surprise to the upside though is not to be excluded and that could lead to high CAD appreciation.

At the same time, the U.S. retail figures will be released and will potentially affect the USD pairs at that time. Expectations are mixed with regard to the figure type. A moderate shock is expected.

General Verdict:

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