Market Analysis Review

Fed’s Powell: Weak labour market and progress on inflation might lead to rate cuts soon, USD saw steady appreciation, Gold was stable, Crude oil fell

| 10 July, 2024 at 15:38 GMT

Previous Trading Day’s Events (09.07.2024)

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Winners vs Losers

EURJPY leads as JPY pairs climb to the top of the week’s gainers list. It seems that JPY is weakening again. Silver remains the month’s top winner with 6.52% gains so far.

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News Reports Monitor – Previous Trading Day (09.07.2024)

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

1. Midnight – Night Session (Asian)

No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.

2. Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)

No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.

Fed’s Powell highlights: A slowing job market signalling that rate cuts may take place soon. “Inflation has eased notably” in the past two years, he added, though it still remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

General Verdict:

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FOREX MARKETS MONITOR

EURUSD (09.07.2024) 15m Chart Summary

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

Price Movement

The pair moved steadily to the downside since the USD experienced a steady appreciation. During Powell’s speech volatility levels grew but no major impact was recorded. The pair continued with the intraday downtrend until the end of the trading day.

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CRYPTO  MARKETS MONITOR

BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Chart Summary 1H

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

Price Movement

On the 5th of July, the price fell further breaking the 57K USD level and dropped to the next support at 54K USD. Since then the market recovered and corrected by moving upwards and crossing the 30-period MA. The price remained close to the MA as it continued moving sideways with a clear mean level at nearly 57K USD. The latest price data formed a triangle indicating that volatility levels lowered and as mentioned in our previous analysis upon triangle breakout on the 10th it led to a jump. Now the price remains higher near to 58,500 USD.

Crypto sorted by Highest Market Cap:

Most Crypto suffered losses lately. The last few days however we see some correction, eliminating some of the losses. In the last 24 hours prices made some progress but they are only moving sideways with high volatility. No significant correction has taken place so far.

https://www.investing.com/crypto/currencies

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EQUITY MARKETS MONITOR

S&P500 (SPX500) 4-Day Chart Summary

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

Price Movement

After some price action that looked like a slowdown due to the holiday, on the 5th of July, the index moved aggressively upwards again early during the Asian session on the index (futures) market opening. Retracement took place. This week started with a more aggressive upward movement for the index. Looking at things from afar, no significant correction is expected yet. A clear uptrend. The RSI is indeed showing bearish signals. That however must be supported with downside breakouts and that did not happen yet. U.S. inflation report tomorrow. If the figure is reported higher than expected, then breakouts could take place and eventually stocks will see a turning point to the downside.

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COMMODITIES MARKETS MONITOR

USOIL (WTI) 4-Day Chart Summary

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

Price Movement

On the 4th, the price remained above the 30-period MA and continued upwards within the channel. However, a triangle formation was formed and on the 5th of July after 18:00 server time, the price dropped heavily breaking that triangle to the downside. The fall extended to the support near 81.5 USD/b and then retraced to the 61.8 Fibo level before it started to test that support again. As mentioned in the previous analysis, there was a potential for a breakout and a further downward movement of Crude oil’s price. This breakout took place and was extended with a further drop until the 19th of July. The price settled near 80.5 USD/b below the MA. XAUUSD (Gold) 4-Day Chart Summary

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

Price Movement

Gold jumped due to the USD’s early depreciation and tested the high at 2,365 USD/oz on the 5th of July. On the same day, it jumped again during the NFP release. It was an intraday shock that resulted in increased demand for metals, pushing Gold upwards in order to technically complete the breakout of the previous triangle formation and reaching the next target level at nearly 2,393 USD/oz as mentioned in our webinar on Friday. On the 8th it corrected from that jump and moved significantly to the downside. It crossed the 30-period MA and found support at 2,350 USD/oz before it retraced to the MA. After several unsuccessful breakouts of that support, the price eventually moved to the upside on the 9th of July. The target level currently is at 2,380 USD/oz after the breakout of that apparent triangle formation, as depicted on the chart.

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News Reports Monitor – Today Trading Day (10.07.2024)

Server Time / Timezone EEST (UTC+03:00)

1. Midnight – Night Session (Asian)

China’s inflation was reported weak, falling to 0.20% on a yearly basis. Weak domestic demand is the reason. No major impact on the market was recorded.

The RBNZ decided to keep rates steady causing the NZD to depreciate significantly. An intraday shock was recorded that caused the NZDUSD to drop nearly 50 pips before a retracement took place. The drop though continued to take place. 

2. Morning – Day Session (European and N. American Session)

No important news announcements, no important scheduled releases.

General Verdict:

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